Assessing the Future of Taurus Cedar (Cedrus libani) as a High-Value Timber Species under Climate Uncertainty

Abstract

Taurus cedar is a valuable tree species that is widely used in industrial forestry due to its high-quality, durable, and workable wood, making it preferred in furniture, construction, and wood technology sectors. Recognizing its economic and ecological importance, afforestation efforts have been carried out by the Isparta Regional Directorate of Forestry since 2009 to expand its distribution. However, climate change poses a severe threat to sustainable forestry and forest industries worldwide, with extreme events including heatwaves, irregular precipitation, water stress, and floods. This study aimed to model and map the current and future (to year 2100) distribution of Taurus cedar in the Isparta region under various climate scenarios using the MaxEnt. The model performance showed high prediction accuracy (AUC values) and the variables affecting the distribution were precipitation seasonality, elevation, precipitation of the driest quarter and landform index. Simulation results indicated that the combined percentage of suitable and highly suitable distributions currently stands at approximately 70% but is projected to decline by about 20% under the SSP 8.5 scenario. Comparing current and future projections revealed an estimated 71.5% reduction in Taurus cedar distribution. These findings stress the urgent need for conservation and adaptation measures to protect Taurus cedar from climate change and ensure its long-term survival.